Investigating the Potential of Vertical-TEC as an Earthquake Precursor: Haiti Major (ML 7) Earthquake Case Study

Ghafar, Marjan Mohammed; DLEER, Sarkhel; MUKHTAR, Sebar; MOHAMMED, Dawar HK; Salh, Hemn Mohammed

doi:10.24271/psr.2024.425626.1421

Investigating the Potential of Vertical-TEC as an Earthquake Precursor: Haiti Major (ML 7) Earthquake Case Study

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Marjan Mohammed Ghafar ¹

Sarkhel DLEER ²

Sebar MUKHTAR ²

Dawar HK MOHAMMED ²

Hemn Mohammed Salh ³

¹ university of Halabja, college of science,physics department

² Department of Physics, College of Science, University of Halabja, Halabja, Iraq

³ Department of Physics, Faculty of Science and Heath, Koya University, Koya KOY45, Iraq

10.24271/psr.2024.425626.1421

Abstract

Abstract : This study explores whether vertical total electron content (VTEC or TEC) can serve as a precursor to a major earthquake (magnitude 7) that occurred in Haiti on January 12, 2010. The analysis involves examining and correlating various ionospheric and atmospheric parameters. Two TEC data stations are utilized: Scub, located approximately 377.80 km from the epicentre within the earthquake preparation zone (EPZ), and Cro1, situated about 847.7 km from the epicentre outside the EPZ by applying the mean and standard deviation methods. The study reveals a noteworthy finding: a positive TEC anomaly of about 13 TECU was identified at the Scub station, only 11 days before the main earthquake event. This positive anomaly can be credited as a potential precursor, as it persists even after mitigating the impact of external factors such as geomagnetic storms and atmospheric parameters. Furthermore, the positive TEC anomaly is localized, as it was not observed outside the EPZ at the Crol station.

Keywords

Seismo-Ionospheric Coupling

Radon Emissions

Earthquake Forecasting

Geomagnetic Activity

TEC Anomalies

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